NULLBIT
NULLBIT
Data & Analytics Case Study

Turning a dozen disconnected data sources into one forecasting model

A unified data platform, MMM/MTA stack and audience-uplift engine for a global endurance-race operator

Marketing Mix ModelingMulti-Touch AttributionRevenue ForecastingData Engineering
Year

2026

Duration

Multi-phase, ongoing

Industry

Sports / Marketing Analytics

Turning a dozen disconnected data sources into one forecasting model
Starting position

Starting position

Starting position

  • Revenue forecast accuracy

    Manual, spreadsheet-based cash forecast

    ≈ -25 to -30% vs. actuals
  • Marketing & commerce data sources

    Paid media, ticketing, CRM, web analytics - no shared warehouse

    15+ disconnected platforms
  • Channel-level ROI visibility

    No marketing mix model or attribution layer in place

    Directional only
  • Reporting cadence

    Management reports rebuilt by hand each cycle

    Manual, ad-hoc

Market size

Multi-million € annually

Paid-media spend under measurement

Scope: Across multiple brands and regionsSource: Internal media-spend ledger, pre-engagement

Approx. budget

NDA

200,000 – 999,999 €

Budget breakdown

Data platform & warehouse engineering35%
Marketing mix modeling & attribution30%
Social network analysis & audience uplift20%
Reporting, BI & automation15%

Budget bucket per Clutch.co project cost category. Exact figures under NDA.

Phased, ongoing engagement

Multi-phase

  1. 1

    Phase 1

    Data source audit + unified warehouse design

  2. 2

    Phase 2

    Production ETL platform - scheduled pipelines into a central warehouse

  3. 3

    Phase 3

    Marketing mix modeling + multi-touch attribution

  4. 4

    Phase 4

    Social network analysis pilot for audience uplift

  5. 5

    Phase 5

    Statistical forecasting + BI rollout + daily automation

The Challenge

Revenue spread across dozens of markets, tracked in spreadsheets

Highly seasonal ticket revenue, fragmented across paid-media platforms, ticketing systems and regional brands, was reconciled by hand into a single cash-flow forecast - one that consistently disagreed with what the sales data actually showed.

Revenue forecasts built in spreadsheets, disconnected from the sales data warehouse

15+ marketing and commerce platforms with no unified data layer

No systematic view of which channels or campaigns actually drove incremental revenue

Audience growth relying on paid acquisition alone, with no organic-network lever

Our Solution

One warehouse, one model, one forecast

We built a production data platform that pulls every marketing, ticketing and commerce source into a single warehouse on a scheduled cadence, then layered statistical and machine-learning models on top: a marketing mix model to size true channel impact, multi-touch attribution over the unified event stream, a statistical revenue forecast validated against live sales data, and a social-network model that scores and activates high-value audience segments.

Unified data warehouse

Dozens of scheduled pipelines land paid-media, ticketing, CRM and web-analytics data in one warehouse, replacing spreadsheet reconciliation.

Marketing mix modeling

Statistical and Bayesian MMM sizes the real revenue impact of each channel, accounting for adstock windows far longer than typical retail cycles.

Multi-touch attribution

Attribution over the unified event stream shows which digital touchpoints actually convert, reconciled against e-commerce order data.

Social network analysis

Graph-based scoring of the audience network identifies and activates high-value segments, measured against a held-out control group.

What changed

How marketing measurement changed

Forecasting and channel measurement moved from manual, spreadsheet-based estimation to an auditable statistical layer running on live data.

Revenue forecasting

Before

Manual cash-budget spreadsheet

After

Statistical forecast validated against live sales data

Forecast error measured and closed quarter over quarter instead of assumed.

Channel measurement

Before

Platform-reported, siloed metrics

After

Unified MMM + MTA across all paid channels

One model reconciles what each channel actually contributed.

Audience growth

Before

Paid acquisition only

After

Graph-scored network activation, A/B measured

Organic network effects tested and quantified, not assumed.

Reporting cadence

Before

Manual, ad-hoc spreadsheet decks

After

Automated BI dashboards + daily data refresh

Numbers refresh themselves instead of being rebuilt each cycle.

Investment → Revenue ImpactNDA

Measurable incremental revenue from the first uplift pilot

Ratio

≈ 3-6x

modeled, first year of the audience-uplift program

Incremental revenue

≈ 2-5M € / year

projected incremental revenue from the audience-uplift model at scale

Investment

200,000 – 999,999 €

Payback period

Within one seasonal cycle

Method

Controlled A/B test (network-activated vs. control audience), revenue-per-user comparison

Confidence

Medium-High - based on a controlled pilot, scaling assumptions applied for the full-year projection

Figures reflect the audience-uplift program only; broader forecast-accuracy gains are not monetized here.

The Outcome

From a forecast that missed by ~30% to one accurate within 1%

The unified platform now runs dozens of scheduled pipelines a day. The statistical forecast, validated against a full quarter of live sales data, closed a forecast gap the previous spreadsheet-based model could not, and the audience-uplift model demonstrated a measurable revenue lift in a controlled test.

Quarterly revenue forecast error

Before

≈ -25 to -30%

After

≈ 1%

~30 p.p. tighterValidated against one full quarter of live sales

vs. previous spreadsheet-based cash forecast

Marketing & commerce data sources unified

Before

15+ disconnected platforms

After

One central warehouse

Single source of truthDozens of scheduled pipelines running daily/hourly

Production data platform

Revenue per user, network-activated audience

Before

Control group baseline

After

+60-70%

+60-70%Measured in a controlled A/B test

Pilot campaign window

E-commerce orders reconciled to a channel/touchpoint

Before

0%

After

≈ 50%

+50 p.p.Attribution coverage across unified order data

Post-launch

Stack & Services
Apache Airflow
AWS Redshift
Python / Bayesian MMM (PyMC)
Statistical Forecasting
Social Network Analysis
Holistics BI
n8n Automation
We used to close every quarter arguing about whose forecast was right. Now we argue about which channel to fund next - the model already tells us how close we were.

Head of Marketing Analytics

Confidential - Global Endurance-Race Operator

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